Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, the sequel to Jason Momoa’s aquatic superhero adventure, is proving to be box office poison. As one of four films releasing over the weekend, it faces a test against fellow newcomers: Universal and Illumination’s animated “Migration,” Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s romantic comedy “Anyone but You,” and A24’s sports biopic “The Iron Claw.” Expectations for the film are dismal, projecting a soft $35 million to $40 million in its four-day debut, potentially making it another casualty in a challenging year for superhero films.
These numbers are similar to what was projected for The Flash opening weekend, but with a crowded release schedule at theatres, people uninterested in this film at all with the Amber Heard drama, and other superhero films performing below expectations, the movie may gross even worse than projections state.
December releases historically build momentum through the new year rather than relying on colossal opening weekends. In contrast, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’s predecessor started modestly, earning $67 million initially but surging to a mighty $335 million in North America and a staggering $1.15 billion globally. However, the sequel faces a different tide, with superhero movies struggling in 2023. DC films like The Flash, Shazam!: Fury of the Gods, and Blue Beetle have faltered, creating an undercurrent of skepticism around the new Aquaman installment.
Warner Bros. seems to have adjusted its marketing strategy, scaling back promotional efforts despite the film’s substantial budget. The studio chose a “fan screening” and a media and influencer event, omitting a traditional star-studded red carpet premiere. Reviews remain under embargo, adding an air of mystery to the follow-up film where Aquaman must protect Atlantis from an ancient power.
The crowded Christmas Day marquee introduces more contenders, including Warner’s musical adaptation of “The Color Purple,” Neon’s drama “Ferrari,” and George Clooney’s “The Boys in the Boat.” Yet, none of these films are expected to emerge as breakout hits during their opening weekends. The absence of a potential blockbuster like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” or “Avatar: The Way of Water” leaves theater owners concerned about a lackluster holiday season.
Internationally, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom faces slightly more favorable currents, with projections suggesting up to $110 million overseas by Christmas Eve. However, domestically, it contends with a competitive landscape. Wonka, in its second weekend, is expected to add $21 million to $23 million, competing for the audience’s attention.
The DCEU has encountered turbulence in 2023, with films struggling at the box office. The sequel, positioned as the final chapter before a reset led by James Gunn and Peter Safran, is not anticipated by fans after far too much controversy surrounding the film. Lead actor Jason Momoa’s recent expressions of doubt about returning as Aquaman add to the intrigue. As the film navigates these waters, its fate at the box office remains uncertain, and the industry watches to see if Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom will sink or swim.
What do you think about Aquaman 2’s box office prospects and the challenges facing superhero films in 2023? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Dead expanded universe, dead franchise, dead character, dead company, etc. Who could’ve predicted this? lol.